Back in 2018, it took just eight words to ignite a Labour conference and to show the party was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not exactly stirring rhetoric, the words were greeted with rapturous applause as delegates rose in spontaneous acclamation.
When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". Context, however, is key.
During that deeply polarized period of 2018, straying from his agreed text like this was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in working-class seats above the pro-European instincts within Labour. With that single address, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who championed the party's base against a leader he later succeeded.
The Evolution of Stance and Closed Debates
In the years since, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. An early move after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue had been settled by the previous year’s general election. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” commitments that forbade rejoining the European Union or its core structures.
Like his predecessor, his strategy has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in key seats, even if survey data indicates many of them have passed away or shifted opinion.
A Lid That Rattles on the EU
Yet, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled party leader. While Europe is no longer the boiling pot in UK politics, the cap which was tightly sealed for five years is beginning to rattle again.
Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified the rhetoric about the devastation caused by Brexit has inflicted on Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and is still his sole political accomplishment.
And yet, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has left Britain with a national economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, towers over the minor adjustments thus far implemented by ministers. The PM's much-touted relationship reset agreed with Brussels last summer provides gains quantified in low decimal points.
Cabinet Divergence and Ambitious Proposals
The chancellor is among those attempting to bypass entrenched interior ministry opposition to an expansive version of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme allowing youths can travel between the UK and the EU for work or study.
The deputy prime minister muses openly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of being in an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, last week voted for an opposition proposal on joining one.
Although the Europe minister, who oversees EU policy, now present at all cabinet sessions, insists the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there are ways to work around them. A proposal would be to declaring the commencement of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the next manifesto, with implementation only if securing a fresh mandate.
The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Scepticism
Yet, Starmer has lately been damping it all down on the idea cautioning that rejoining a European customs area would “unravel” the commercial agreements with the US, which he regards as signature achievements of his government.
It is understood that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, stemming from three further factors.
- First, he believes a customs pact is now much harder because his ministers actively diverging from European rules across a range of sectors, including the environment.
- Second, the exorbitant price set for the UK to join a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure in talks has led British officials that European nations are less interested in offering favorable terms to the UK than in demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
- Lastly, America's latest security doctrine, praised by the Kremlin, is seen by key advisors in Downing Street as grounds for Britain to maintain distance from Europe.
An Alarming Strategy and Geopolitical Calculations
This strange and concerning American strategy paper asserts Europe is threatened by cultural extinction due to Muslim migration. It contains a single mention of the UK, placed beside a proposal that the US government will intervene in British politics to foster the growth of “patriotic” parties.
However, instead of concluding that this makes America an unreliable partner, ministers is worried that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by endangering fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.
Leadership Speculation & The Echo from the Past
This situation returns us to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not an attempt to become leader but merely an effort to preserve the possibility of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. In fact, back then, he still supported a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he currently seems to reject.
But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office note that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate for the leadership, is part of a group of cabinet ministers signaling they desire greater ambition on Europe.
Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a future race to replace Starmer, maintain she won’t discuss her stance on a customs union because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.
The Clear Danger & A Wise Memory
The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject significant moves towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found.
It would be wise for Starmer to remember the impact that a short phrase had on his career seven years ago. There are options for a big offer on Europe which the PM should not “rule out”; he should explore them personally, before someone else adopt them as their own.
