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Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, though experts believe PVV is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and established a four-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

However, PVV's support has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a election period focused on issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant division ensures that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – often including four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of power. But, opponents and experts argue that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations may require several months, political observers suggest that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive coalition led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected soon after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.